Future of Pettendorf: Population is growing, but where are the children?

Future of Pettendorf: Population is growing, but where are the children?

The Regensburg district has created a comprehensive population forecast for the municipality of Pettendorf up to the year 2034. This analysis is of great importance in order to better understand future demographic changes and to be able to plan appropriate measures. The calculation includes not only the demographic profile of the community, but also the development of the number of crèche and kindergarten children as well as the school development for the Pettendorf-Pielenhofen primary school. Pettendorf.de reports that The population forecast should be understood as a model calculation based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration.

In recent years, the population in the Regensburg district has grown, which is primarily due to migration gains. This also includes immigration of those seeking protection, especially from Ukraine. The forecasts show that the population in the municipality of Pettendorf will grow differently over the next ten years. An increase is expected in the age groups 14-18 years, 18-27 years and those aged 65 and over. At the same time, a decline is forecast in the age groups of 3-6 years and 6-14 years. This indicates a changing age structure.

School and childcare offerings

The Pettendorf-Pielenhofen elementary school will experience a slight increase in the number of students by the 2028/29 school year. After that, however, a decline in student numbers is expected. These developments have a direct impact on planning in the areas of education and child care. As the surveys make clear, the calculation of crèche and kindergarten places is necessary in order to plan the care requirements, especially when there is a lot of construction activity.

The last municipal requirements planning for the daycare sector was carried out in November 2019. The coverage rate for children under 3 is expected to increase in the coming years. However, this depends heavily on the results of the population forecast mentioned, which are based on data from the residents' registration offices.

Demographic trends in context

The importance of such population projections is also clear at a supra-regional level. Destatis explains that These calculations serve to clarify and quantify future demographic changes, which is crucial for political and economic action. These are “if-then scenarios” that cannot, however, represent an exact prediction of the future and do not take unforeseeable structural breaks into account.

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased mortality and impacted family planning. These new factors have been incorporated into the current forecasts. It is also stated that without net immigration, the population in Germany, which was around 83.2 million in 2021, would shrink. The future of the population therefore depends heavily on the birth rate and net migration.

In summary, the population projection for the municipality of Pettendorf not only shows local demographic developments, but also reflects broader social trends that will be important for the coming years. The development of the age structure, characterized by increasing numbers in certain age groups and declines in others, will have a lasting impact on regional politics and social services.